The updated spring flood outlook for Grand Forks and East Grand Forks from the National Weather Service is more than a foot above the 50-foot level listed two weeks ago. The record is 54.35 feet in 1997, the year of the flood disaster.

By: Kevin Bonham, Grand Forks Herald

The Red River has a 50-50 chance of rising above 51.1 feet at Grand Forks and East Grand Forks — the second-highest on record — this spring, according to the National Weather Service’s latest spring flood outlook.

The new forecast is more than a foot above the 50-foot level listed two weeks ago. The record is 54.35 feet in 1997.

Warm temperatures over the past week have contributed to melting throughout the basin. However, much of that moisture remains in the snowpack, according to Greg Gust, meteorologist in charge at the weather service’s Grand Forks office.

Here are some major points, according to the weather service’s latest outlook:

_ All points along the Red River have a better than 90 percent risk of major flooding.

_ Fargo and Oslo, Minn., have a better than 20 percent risk of meeting or exceeding their 2009 floods of record. In 2009, Fargo hit 40.84 ft, while Oslo hit 38.19 ft.

_ With mainstem Red River flows now expected to be slightly higher overall, the risk for 2009-scale flooding near Grand Forks has risen from about 60 percent to about 80 percent.

_ The risk for reaching or exceeding the 1997 flood of record for Halstad, Minn., and Grand Forks remains roughly 10 to 12 percent. The 1997 record crest is 40.74 feet in Halstad and 54.35 feet in Grand Forks.

_ Hendrum, Minn., on the Wild Rice River, stands a 20 percent risk of exceeding its 1997 flood of record of 33.85 ft.

_ Highlanding, Minn., on the Red Lake River, has a better than 70 percent risk of breaking it’s 2009 flood of record (13.64 ft) largely due to high levels on the Red Lakes.

_ Neche, N.D., on the Pembina River, and Grafton, on the Park River, could experience levels near those of 2009. Grafton has a 25 percent risk of exceeding its 1950 flood of record of 16.52 ft.

_ “Warm temperatures this past week have helped to melt some of the existing snowpack and even to evaporate or sublimate some of the snowpack moisture, leading to a loss of from one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of moisture,” Gust said. “So, overall net moisture gains since January have been quite low.”

However, tough conditions remain throughout the region.

“Our snowpack has become quite dense, compacted, and in some places soil is exposed,” Gust said, adding that tough outlook conditions persist throughout the valley, including:

_ High snow water content. The actual moisture from the snow is still present either in the dense snow, in the near soil layer or in ditches. “It has not gone away,” Gust said.

_ High soil moisture. Soils that were very wet last fall are still frozen and very saturated.

_ High base streamflows. River and lake levels (though frozen at the surface) have remained near winter season records.

The weather service indicates wintery conditions are on the return, with a colder and snowier than normal pattern expected for the later part of February and beyond.

With La Nina conditions expected to continue in the Pacific through early summer, an active weather pattern should persist well through the typical March-April snowmelt runoff period, according to the weather service.

The following locations have a near-50-percent or greater chance for reaching or exceeding major flood stage: Valley City, Lisbon, Kindred, Grafton and Neche in North Dakota; and Climax, Crookston and High Landing in Minnesota.

A better-than-even chance of moderate flooding exists at Enderlin, Mapleton, Hillsboro, Minto and Walhalla in North Dakota; and at Sabin, Hawley, Dilworth, Twin Valley, Shelly, Alvarado and Roseau in Minnesota.

Reach Bonham at (701) 780-1110; (800) 477-6572, ext. 110; or send e-mail to kbonham@gfherald.com.

Tags: 2011 floods, gf and egf, north dakota, updates, news, fccnetwork, floods, minnesota, fargo

Associated Press — The National Weather Service says odds of major flooding along the Red River in Minnesota and North Dakota have increased slightly.

The weather service said Thursday that it believes there’s a 22 percent chance the river will surpass the record crest of 40.84 feet set in 2009 in Fargo, N.D., and neighboring Moorehead, Minn. Last month’s prediction was 20 percent.

Meteorologist Greg Gust says recent warm weather has decreased the depth of snowpack in many areas, but the water content remains high and the recent thaw will have little impact on the level of flooding.

On the upper Minnesota River in western Minnesota, the chance of major flooding at Montevideo has risen to 90 percent. On the Mississippi, the threat at St. Paul is now 95 to 98 percent.

Steve Karnowski contributed to this story from St. Paul, Minn.

Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Public health officials in Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, Minn., want to create registries of vulnerable people before expected spring flooding.

The Fargo Forum newspaper reports that the registries would include the frail elderly and the disabled. The goal is to enable public health officials help people who aren’t in regular contact with service providers such as hospitals and nursing homes. If there is severe flooding, the database could be used to help with relocations.

During spring Red River flooding two years ago, hospitals and nursing homes in Fargo-Moorhead evacuated about 2,700 people as a precaution.

Homeowner Adrienne Eider already has plans to move her belongings out of the basement in anticipation of a third-straight year of major flooding in Fargo.

“We were lucky we didn’t have to sandbag last year, but with the current predictions it’s a little bit scarier this year again,” the south Fargo Woodhaven neighborhood resident said Tuesday.

Eider was one of more than 200 residents who came out during the first of two community meetings Tuesday to hear the city’s plans for protecting their neighborhoods.

While flood fatigue may be running high for some homeowners, starting preparations this early and staying informed is going to be the key in resilience, said Dr. Andy McLean, medical director of the North Dakota Department of Human Services.

The National Weather Service predicted last month that the Red River has a 10 percent chance of exceeding 42 feet, a level that would top 2009’s record crest of 40.84 feet.

“It’s very early, but it’s also a very high forecast,” said Senior Engineer April Walker.

Engineers have identified and created protection plans for south Fargo’s critical areas, which include areas near the Fargo Country Club, River Drive South, Rose Creek, River Vili, Oak Cree, Timberline, Drain 27 and Drain 53, Walker said.

Staff is breaking the city into 13 districts, each of which will be assigned an engineer and firefighter to help coordinate efforts.

The city will provide a plan, supplies, volunteers, engineering staff and levee patrols, but homeowners will have duties of their own, Walker said.

The city advises homeowners to:

Organize neighborhoods and provide a point of contact.
Prepare property by removing fences, decks, gazebos and other debris that may get in the way of sandbagging or levee construction.
Assist volunteers and city staff in constructing line of protection.
Maintain sandbag levees.
Pump seepage.
Be aware of personal safety.
Secure pets.
The city is also asking that homeowners fill out a right-of-entry form to allow city staff, equipment or emergency agencies on their property.

Not all of the homeowners at Tuesday’s meeting live directly in reach of flooding from the Red River.

Tom Hubbard said his home north of Rose Creek is out of immediate danger, but the whole city is at risk if a line of protection fails or the sewer system was affected.

“It can indirectly affect us all,” Hubbard said.

Readers can reach Forum reporter Heidi Shaffer at (701) 241-5511

If you go

What: Fargo neighborhood flood meeting

When: 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday for neighborhoods north of Interstate 94. Doors open at 6, with a presentation at 7.

Where: Fargo Civic Center, 207 4th St. S.

Resident resources

For general flood information, visit www.cityoffargo.com/flood.
For a right-of-entry form to allow city staff, equipment and emergency personal on property, visit: www.cityoffargo.com/CityInfo/Departments/Engineering/FloodInformationCenter/ConsentForm/

For property information, call (701) 476-4199.
To see when sandbag volunteers are needed, visit: http://volunteerstatus.cityoffargo.com or call (701) 476-4000.
Tags: news, flood

Gov. Jack Dalrymple
FARGO, N.D. (AP) — North Dakota has more tools to tackle flooding this year than it did in 2009 when the Red River crested at a record level in the Fargo area, Gov. Jack Dalrymple said Monday.

Dalrymple told city and county leaders that the North Dakota National Guard will contribute all its resources toward the flood fight and said financing from the state won’t be an issue.

“We will hold nothing in reserve,” Dalrymple said.

The National Weather Service projects a 20 to 25 percent chance residents in the Fargo and Moorhead, Minn., area could see Red River flooding that approaches record levels set in the spring of 2009, when thousands were forced to evacuate.

Flood stage for the Red River in Fargo is 18 feet. It crested in 2009 at nearly 41 feet. City engineers plan to build the earthen levees to 44 feet and place the sandbag dikes to 43 feet.

“This is earlier than we normally get together,” said Dalrymple, who was previously the state’s lieutenant governor. “Just when you think we’ve had the flood of a lifetime, we see another one of these forecasts.

“I hate to say it, but I think you have the best flood fighters in America,” he said.

Dalrymple said the state’s National Guard troops contributed 53,000 man days to the 2009 flood. That came at a time when many troops were deployed overseas and had much of the Guard’s heavy equipment with them, he said.

“We’re in a bit of a low point right now in terms of troops deployed overseas,” Guard Adjutant General David Sprynczynatyk said.

The state’s legislature, which meets every other year, is currently in session and will quickly be available to approve a disaster fund, Dalrymple said. The state spent $20 million on the 2009 flood.

“We can let them know up front that we’re going to need that again,” the governor said.

The city is planning to begin filling sandbags on Valentine’s Day, looking to have 3 million bags on hand by early March. The operation will begin as a volunteer effort among the business leaders, with help from students as needed, said Pat Zavoral, Fargo’s city administrator.

“We don’t want to use high schoolers and middle schoolers for a month sandbagging,” Zavoral said.

About 200,000 people live in the metropolitan area.

Zavoral told Dalrymple that the city needs to receive a presidential disaster declaration “as soon as we can.” He said the city has committed to spending about $1.8 million on other flood-control products, such as large interlocking containers known as Hescos and water-filled plastic tubes called Aqua Dams.

The Canadian province of Manitoba, which also is preparing for flooding from the north-flowing Red River, has also put in a rush order for Hescos, Zavoral said.

“We had to pull the trigger in advance of the presidential declaration,” Zavoral said.

Tags: flood preparations, news, fargo, flood, dalrymple, updates

Governor Jack Dalrymple will participate in a Red River flood preparation briefing Monday in Fargo. The meeting will be held 5 to 6 p.m. at Fargo City Hall, 200 3rd St. N.

Mayor Dennis Walaker and other city leaders will brief Dalrymple and state officials regarding the city’s spring flood strategy. Dalrymple will update city leaders on available state assistance.

Other officials attending the meeting include Fargo City Administrator Pat Zavoral, Fargo City Engineer Mark Bittner, Adjutant General David Sprynczynatyk and State Engineer Todd Sando.

The National Weather Service projects a 20 percent to 25 percent chance that Fargo-area residents could see Red River flooding that approaches record levels set in the spring of 2009.

Our region just caught the edge of this winter’s latest big snowstorm which will move away from Chicago today and towards the northeastern part of the U.S. That’s a break for Minnesotans worried about spring flooding.

The National Weather Service says widespread flooding is expected around the state, and any additional snow will only add to the problem. The Red River Valley is once again expected to be a flood hot spot this year.

MPR’s Phil Picardi spoke Wednesday with reporter Dan Gunderson from the Moorhead bureau about flood preparations and other news in northwestern Minnesota.

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/02/02/gundersondebrief/